Africa's international relations are bigger than a U.S.-China binary
Polling from Gallup shows that Africans admire China and the U.S. but are wary of alignment with either power.
The 2024 Gallup Rating World Leaders report, which asked respondents about the “leadership” of the U.S., China, Russia and Germany, found that the median approval of China and the U.S. across Africa was neck-and-neck at 58% and 56% respectively, with Germany narrowly behind at 54% and Russia at a distant 42%.
Some of the commentary that followed the release of this year’s survey, including by Gallup itself, framed its findings as indicating a “loss” of U.S. influence to China or its “waning” popularity among Africans. This is a misleading interpretation that is based more on the projection of preconceived notions than a careful, exhaustive assessment of the evidence. Over the years, Africans have indicated favorable perceptions of the two countries to similar degrees in surveys by Gallup and other organizations like Pew and Afrobarometer. This year’s findings are consistent with historical trends, suggesting that neither power has established a clear advantage among Africans.
The 2024 report contained insights that African policymakers, academics, researchers, commentators and ordinary citizens should be paying attention to as they demand more equity from global powers. For good measure, their counterparts in the U.S., China and other parts of the world should also keep score. As it happens, Kenyan President William Ruto is currently on a four-day state visit to the U.S., the first by an African leader in 15 years. As one of the continent’s powerhouses with solid bilateral ties to Beijing and Washington, Kenya is symbolic of the jostling for influence by foreign powers in a geopolitically significant part of the world. Africa’s international relations are a big focus of this publication and a major reason why I started it is to have a place to think publicly about the continent’s foreign affairs and how its people, governments and multilateral institutions should pursue the global partnerships needed to advance African peace, security and prosperity. I have already shared some thoughts on the survey results with The Africa Report days after the report was released, and this post is an elaboration of my thoughts on the key findings of this year’s Gallup report.
The U.S. (still) enjoys remarkable goodwill across Africa …
Median approval of the U.S. across Africa stood at 56% in this year’s survey, 15 percentage points higher than the global approval rating of 41%. The image of the U.S. was found to be strongest in Africa, with a majority of respondents in 22 of the 36 countries surveyed expressing approval of the U.S. Africa has regularly led the world in approval of the U.S. in Gallup polls. This year, seven countries — Mauritania, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Tunisia, Mozambique, Senegal and Ethiopia — saw double-digit increases from 2023 in the approval rating of the U.S. while Guinea, Togo, Benin, Eswatini and Namibia showed an uptick of five or more percentage points. Of the 13 countries around the world where approval of the U.S. increased substantially — by 10 or more points — more than half were in Africa.
At 56%, U.S. approval in Africa is down by three percentage points from 2023 when it earned the highest approval of the four countries respondents were asked about. This year, U.S. approval dropped sharply in Gambia, Uganda and Kenya although 59% of Kenyans surveyed still expressed a positive perception of the U.S. Of the four countries respondents were asked about, the U.S. was the only one not to see its image improve across Africa this year. And of course, the big headline from this year’s survey is that the U.S. ceded the top spot to China.
When broken down by region, U.S. favorability appears strongest in West Africa and weakest in North Africa and the Horn of Africa. Seven of the 10 countries in which the U.S. posted the highest approval figures are in coastal West Africa, while the ten countries that saw the lowest approval rates are mostly in the continent’s north and east. The high approval of the U.S. in West Africa is no surprise. As I wrote in a 2021 article:
The English language continues to grow in popularity and ubiquity, particularly among younger West Africans seeking to break with the French colonial legacy, and American popular culture is a significant outlet for those expressions of interest. U.S. brands and companies like Apple, Nike, Coca-Cola and Google remain popular and in demand from Cotonou to Conakry.
As I also noted to The Africa Report, most of the West African countries in which the U.S. grew its approval are run by pro-West governments with a long history of cooperation with Washington. Some of them have sizable, prominent diasporas in the U.S. Contra popular claims by Western commentators about “anti-Western sentiment” in West Africa commonly said to be driven by “Russian disinformation,” the opposite is the case in a region where people of all demographic groups generally hold positive views about most Western nations not named France.
Across the continent more broadly, the U.S. has polled well even during times of geopolitical disarray. During the presidency of Donald Trump, who was decidedly hostile to Africa and Africans, Africans who were surveyed generally expressed generally favorable views of the U.S. Millions of Africans consume U.S. media outlets like CNN and many look to the U.S. as a democratic exemplar, Jan. 6 notwithstanding. U.S. preachers and churches — particularly of the evangelical kind — are immensely popular across the continent and since the 1980s, a great number of Pentecostal clerics across the continent have received theological training in the U.S.
All things considered, the U.S. — much more than the rest of its Western peers — is in an invaluable position when it comes to its perception in Africa. U.S. policymakers, who say that they seek a new kind of relationship with Africans, should put that advantage to good use but I have little confidence in their willingness or ability to do so.
… but Africans hold equally positive thoughts about China.
China’s approval in the region rose by six percentage points from 52% in 2022 to 58% in 2023, two points ahead of the U.S in this year’s survey. China registered the highest approval and was tied with Germany for the lowest disapproval rate of the four countries respondents were polled about. Unless I missed it, country-level breakdown for China (or Germany and Russia) was not made available as it was for the U.S. so it is impossible to do a similar analysis of China’s approval.
China’s popularity in Africa is self-evident in ways that shouldn’t require much explanation. The modern foundation of ties between African countries and China date back to the mid-20th century when African nations started to gain notional independence from European colonial powers. Relations have intensified since the turn of the millennium, when the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was codified as a formal mechanism for the relationship. Since 2000, ties between African countries and China have advanced to the point that China has become Africa’s largest trading partner and a major source of foreign direct investment and affordable credit. Although there are concerns on the continent that China is scaling back financing amid domestic uncertainty and a diminishing risk appetite overseas, African governments and citizens have broadly positive views of economic relations with China. The remarkable progress Beijing has made in industrialization, poverty reduction and income generation finds admiration among Africans who view China as a model of economic development.
One 2022 survey of 18-to-24-year-olds across Africa found that China was identified as the foreign power with the biggest positive influence on the continent. It is not hard to understand why. China is a ubiquitous part of everyday life across Africa in ways that no other foreign actor can measure up to. The smartphones, internet service providers, televisions, cable subscriptions, refrigerators and other daily goods and services hundreds of millions of Africans can access today — at affordable rates and of pretty good quality — are largely Chinese. Many of the roads, bridges, dams, stadiums and ports they see every day were built and financed by Chinese firms. The number of African students going to study in China is now twice that of those in U.S. universities. Chinese cultural exports are growing in popularity across the continent and an increasing number of Africans learn Mandarin, primarily for educational and commercial purposes. Thus, Africans generally believe good relations between their country and China is important as a means of improving their livelihoods and developing stronger links with the rest of the world.
For Africans, a choice between U.S. or China is a false binary.
This year’s finding that most Africans hold positive impressions of both the U.S. and China tracks. Dating back many years, Africans have regularly demonstrated favorable views of the two countries. Broad majorities across the continent have often expressed a favorable view of the U.S. and China as an “external influence” in their countries. Africans welcome engagement with both countries and only a small percentage views either negatively. Notwithstanding their views on a range of political and economic issues, most Africans believe it is important to maintain good relations with the two superpowers simultaneously. According to survey findings, Africans reject the notion that they must “choose” between either partner. Rather, they see relations with the two powers not in terms of geopolitical competition but their own development priorities.
There are good reasons for Africans to hold the views they do. As the world’s two superpowers, it is simply a matter of pragmatism for Africans to have productive relations with Beijing and Washington. The U.S. superintends the global order by virtue of its powerful military, unrivaled network of international alliances, the supremacy of the U.S. dollar and Washington’s veto powers within multilateral institutions like the United Nations, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. For its part, China is Africa’s most important foreign partner and as the so-called world’s factory, economic trends there immensely affect developments on the continent. African views of all issues relating to the two powers aren't necessarily identical, but they — like their peers in most parts of the world — do not believe that choosing between the U.S. or China is wise, desirable or attainable. As I have written about elsewhere, Africans see merits and demerits about the two countries but have great expectations of them and encourage a healthy competition between the superpowers that enhances fortunes on the continent.
Another way of thinking about this is that the inability of either power to pull away from the other in terms of favorability among Africans despite their respective strengths is self-reinforcing. For all the cultural hegemony the U.S. holds across the continent and the reverence many Africans have for its society, political institutions and economic vitality, they also admire China’s development story and millions of African citizens regard the country as their nation’s most important economic partner. By the same token, Africans largely prefer multiparty elections and other norms associated with Western-style liberal democracy to single-party rule despite decades of close partnership between Beijing and African capitals. In other words, African countries appreciate the respective virtues of the two powers but have little desire to fully align with one over the other.
African policymakers do note that Chinese officials generally stay clear of the paternalism and hectoring tendency of their U.S. counterparts. Despite claims by Biden administration officials that Washington has no desire to compel Africans to choose a side in its ensuing competition with rival powers, their own words and deeds suggest that the U.S. does, in fact, expect Africans to line up behind Washington against its adversaries like China and Russia. Notwithstanding the misgivings some Africans have about Beijing and Moscow, they are unlikely to part with their belief that it is prudent to maintain friendly relations with as many partners as possible.
It would be interesting to see the approval rating of the two countries in 2025, after the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and the U.S. presidential election will both have been held. It is possible that neither event will lead to a dramatic shift in perceptions on the continent but there might be some indicators that would nonetheless be insightful.
No continent for the Great Bear …
Russia registered the lowest favorability rating of the four powers, with only 42% of survey respondents expressing approval of Russia. This marked an improvement from 34% last year.
This should come as no surprise if you have been paying attention to the facts and prefer level-headed analysis to ideological dogmatism. Despite several years of overheated, fearmongering claims by Western commentators and government officials of Russia’s “growing footprint” and “expanding influence” in Africa, there is little evidence of sympathy and groundswell of support for Russia across the continent now or at any point in recent memory. Russian two-way trade with African countries, at less than $20 billion, is much less than even Africa’s meager trade volume with the U.S. to say nothing of the more than $280 billion two-way trade between China and African countries. Diplomatic cooperation between Moscow and African capitals, on the bilateral and multilateral level, is scarce and lacks broad institutional continuity. Few Africans consume Russian media or cultural exports to the degree that they do Chinese, Western and especially American equivalents. Although the number of Africans who go to study at Russian educational institutions is considerable, it is proportionally less than the rate during the Soviet era. The number of Africans who speak or learn Russian is miniscule compared to other languages like Arabic or Mandarin. If the consideration of these factors still points to evidence of “growing Russian influence” across a continent of 55 countries, then words no longer have any meaning.
Where Russian influence and popularity does exist in Africa, it is generally limited to former French colonies and fragile states across the vast area referred to as the Sahel. There are reasons why this is the case ranging from lingering resentment of France’s (neo)colonial history, popular anger at failed French and U.S. counterterrorism policies and Western support for corrupt, incompetent and repressive domestic regimes. In those contexts, what appears to the naked eye to be an expression of support for Russia is actually deep frustration with the status quo and disdain for French- and U.S.-backed local elites.
As someone who has been present at rallies across West Africa in which protesters held up Russian flags alongside those of their country, I know that many who wave Russian flags do so because they know how much it drives French officials nuts. It is also common to see demonstrators create makeshift Russian flags at the site of protests and hand them out to other folks who recognize its function as a signifier of rebellion. In the last year or so when events in Niger have come to international attention, I have done media hits across several Western media in which I have persistently tried to articulate these nuances to skeptical interlocutors who do not understand the West Africa region and see developments in places like Niger as evidence of a hidden Russian hand orchestrating support for military rule and anti-Western sentiment.
Russia does strike a chord among African audiences with its argument that the U.S.-led international order is rigged to favor Washington and its closest allies. But Africans do not need Russia to tell them that the international system is fundamentally unjust, they can see that for themselves. Moscow’s calls for an alternative to the U.S.-led order are generally well received by Africans but they won’t by themselves boost Russia’s appeal on the continent. At best, Russia’s engagement with Africans is limited, reactive and largely the product of opportunities gifted by Moscow’s wealthier, more popular rivals. The evidence is hidden in plain view if you choose to see it.
But the world is bigger than two.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan commonly says that “the world is bigger than five” to express Ankara’s objection — one that is shared by African states — to the dominance of the U.N. system by the five permanent members of its Security Council. If there is an African equivalent of that aphorism, it would likely be that “the world is bigger than two.” Beyond the desire by Africans to stay clear of choosing between either the U.S. or China, the focus on the rivalry between Washington and Beijing for influence on the continent distracts from the multiplicity of foreign partnerships African nations are pursuing across the board. Reflecting the shift toward an increasingly multipolar world, emerging powers like Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Brazil and India are fast becoming partners of choice on the continent. Africa’s challenges and aspirations are so vast that China and the U.S. cannot realistically meet all its expectations. On a continent of more than 1.4 billion people in 55 countries, it would be impractical for African states to limit the scope of their foreign relations to two nations notwithstanding how powerful and influential they are. Diversifying their partnerships is not just good geopolitics for African countries, it’s their best choice in a world where the two superpowers are showing signs of provincialism and the focus on their competition obscures foreign relations elsewhere.
The responsibility of navigating a complex, interconnected world to secure partnerships that would improve living conditions for Africans falls primarily to the continent’s political leaders. They cannot afford to be content with being spectators on the sidelines of geopolitical great games given the immense challenges that lie ahead for the continent. Fiery speeches by African leaders at international forums like the U.N. General Assembly might play well to some audiences, but they are not a plan of action to make the international system work better for their citizens. A good place to start might be to revamp diplomatic corps across the continent and fill them with competent individuals with the requisite skills and abilities needed to advance African interests in foreign capitals.
Well detailed write up cum audio podcast.