Nigeria, South Africa and the symbolism of May 29

Africa's fate depends considerably on its two doddering giants who don't get along much these days. They must wake out of their slumber and enter a collaborative competition for the continent's sake.

Credit: Nairametrics

May 29, 2024 is a significant date for Nigeria and South Africa. Or at least it is one that the course of history could potentially deem to be important. For Nigeria, the date marks 25 years of its Fourth Republic and lengthiest period of uninterrupted civilian rule. For South Africa, the 30^th anniversary of its non-racial democracy could coincide with the ruling African National Congress losing a majority of votes cast in a general election for the first time since 1994. I had considered writing a “preview” of today's South African election but since there already is a million and one of those, the impetus to do something different came as I found myself thinking about how much the trajectory of the two countries might correspond in more ways than meets the eye.

Separated by more than 4,000 miles, Nigeria and South Africa do not share many similarities and there is not much that brings them together these days. But this wasn’t always the case, and it needn’t remain that way. As continental heavyweights — perhaps even Africa’s two biggest powerhouses — and anchors of their respective regions, Nigeria and South Africa have been the center of gravity in West and Southern Africa and played an instrumental role on many issues affecting the continent. In modern times, the two countries have frequently jostled for prominence in international forums and the peoples of the two countries regard themselves — and are regarded by other Africans — as Africa’s main characters, in good and not-so-good ways. The jocular element of their competition regularly finds expression in digital media spaces, as demonstrated during the recent edition of the Africa Cup of Nations. Before, during and after the semi-final match between Nigeria and South Africa, trending topics on social media like #loadsheddingderby, #tyla and #ourpiano fueled the internet banter between citizens of the two countries. Some degree of competition is healthy and welcome especially if it revolves around entertainment, innovation and problem-solving.

As Nigeria and South Africa mark important milestones on this day, there is much to simultaneously celebrate and lament. Millions of citizens have not reaped many benefits of democratic rule and disaffection with the status quo is widespread in the two countries. As the largest economies in West and Southern Africa respectively, sluggish growth in Nigeria and South Africa is holding back their regions instead of powering them forward. Bilateral relations between the two nations is unexceptional, while engagement on issues of significance to Africa is weak as Abuja and Tshwane (Pretoria) often pursue discrete, provincial agendas in global forums despite their claims to continental importance. At a time when Africans are demanding to be a bigger part of the decision-making process in global affairs, it makes little sense that the continent’s two most prominent voices are failing to shoulder the leadership responsibility they purport to desire. As the two countries look to the next chapter of their history, they should think about the symbolism of May 29 and what it could portend for their respective futures. They should also think bigger about their respective places in the world and how cooperation between Nigeria and South Africa could benefit their peoples and the wider continent.

A short(ish) history of Nigeria-South Africa relations

Nigeria was one of the foremost supporters of liberation movements in Southern Africa and its active diplomacy with South Africa’s exiled ANC leadership as well as the Frontline States — Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe — played an important role in securing independence and majority rule across the region. In the 1960s, the government of Nigeria established the National Committee Against Apartheid to educate the Nigerian public about the evils of apartheid in South Africa. Successive Nigerian governments led the charge against white minority rule in South Africa and spearheaded African efforts inside international organizations like the Organization of African Unity, the Commonwealth of Nations and the United Nations to isolate the apartheid regime and implement international sanctions against it. The Nigerian government issued passports to and resettled South Africans who fled their country for refuge elsewhere. Nigerian civil servants and other private citizens contributed portions of their earnings to the Southern African Relief Fund, popularly known in Nigeria as the “Mandela Tax,” while Nigerian students made financial donations toward the education of Black South Africans after the 1976 Soweto Uprising. Nigerian musicians like Sonny Okosun, Majek Fashek and Onyeka Onwenu released popular music records expressing solidarity with Nelson Mandela — who was imprisoned for 27 years by South Africa’s white regimes — and the anti-apartheid movement.

Formal diplomatic relations between Nigeria and South Africa were established in 1994 after South Africa’s transition to democracy. During the final years of military rule in Nigeria, many of its citizens emigrated to South Africa including dissidents fleeing the iron fist of Gen. Sani Abacha. The number of Nigerians living in the country has expanded since that time. South Africa, under the administration of then-President Mandela, regularly took principled stands against the Abacha regime at considerable cost to the bilateral relationship. The end of military rule in Nigeria in 1999, which overlapped with South Africa's transition of power from Mandela to Thabo Mbeki, saw a drastic improvement in ties and boosted bilateral relations to their highest point to date. Mbeki, who lived in Lagos in the late 1970s as the ANC’s head of mission in Nigeria, had befriended Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria’s military head of state at the time who went on to become its civilian president in 1999, days before Mbeki’s own ascent to power. The personal relationship between the two leaders provided an opportunity for a strategic partnership between their countries.

In 1999, the Nigeria-South Africa Binational Commission was created as the main forum for bilateral engagement. In the 2000s, Nigeria undertook peacemaking measures in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Sudan while South Africa led continental efforts to resolve conflicts in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Côte d'Ivoire. Obasanjo and Mbeki also led efforts to reconstruct Africa’s institutional architecture to shore up its perceived weaknesses, with a view to promoting peace, security and governance across the continent. With the backing of other African leaders, the two men provided the firepower behind the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, led the way in transforming the OAU into the African Union, championed the African Peer Review Mechanism and advocated for African debt cancelation at annual G8 summits. By the mid-2000s, Nigeria became South Africa’s largest continetal trading partner.

The strong bilateral relationship between Nigeria and South Africa was not sustained after Obasanjo and Mbeki left office at the end of the decade, and it has since declined in prominence. The two countries have drifted apart considerably and engagement between Abuja and Tshwane is now anything but robust. The reasons for the weakening of ties are varied, ranging from South Africa’s prioritization of other relationships; competition for prominence in continental and international organizations; episodes of xenophobic attacks against Nigerians resident in South Africa; uneven trade patterns; visa disputes and allegations of worker displacement and crimes committed by Nigerian nationals in South Africa. In particular, xenophobic violence against Nigerians has adversely affected relations between the two nations. A 2019 incident in which South African mobs attacked and looted businesses owned by Nigerians and other foreign nationals threatened to rupture the bilateral relationship. In response to the xenophobic violence, Nigeria recalled its ambassador in Tshwane, summoned South Africa’s envoy in Abuja and canceled a planned appearance by then-Vice President Yemi Osinbajo at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Cape Town.

In addition, Nigerians besieged the local offices of South African companies like MTN and Shoprite before the reprisals were repelled by the police. While the episode did not deteriorate into longstanding diplomatic friction, relations barely improved. South African companies have continued to exit the Nigerian market due to regulatory uncertainty and currency volatility, and South African foreign direct investment in Nigeria is said to have dropped from $2.3 billion in 2019 to $428m in 2023. More recently, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa have pledged to step up economic cooperation between their countries but it remains to be seen what will come of that.

Competition between the two countries is natural

In a sense, the rivalry between Nigeria and South Africa is to be expected. The two nations think of themselves as competitors and frequently behave that way in continental and international settings. In 2014, when South Africa officially lost its position as Africa’s largest economy to Nigeria, South African media and government officials took to referring to their country as “Africa’s most industrialized economy” as a way to qualify that “loss.” Some forecasts have suggested that South Africa will soon regain its position as Africa’s largest economy. Nigeria’s recently expressed interest in joining the G20 and BRICS, two multilateral organizations South Africa belongs to, should be considered in light of mutual competition between the two countries. Amid the push by African states for more and better representation within multilateral institutions like the United Nations, longstanding disagreements between Nigeria and South Africa about who gets to be “Africa’s voice” and how best to do so have deepened.

Of course, such intra-continental rivalries are not unique to Africa and exist elsewhere in the world. But while Nigeria and South Africa share a tendency to be insular and selective about their continental engagements, South Africa has appeared more willing in recent times to step up to the responsibility of being “Africa's voice” — an obligation Nigeria once took pride in assuming — in international affairs far more than Nigeria has been, and arguably can be. Where South Africa during Ramaphosa’s presidency has been a leading African voice on major issues like vaccines, nonalignment in the Russia-Ukraine war and climate justice, Nigeria has generally taken a back seat and limited the scope of its foreign engagement to its West African neighborhood.

On the cultural front, South Africa and Nigeria are major trendsetters on the continent and even on the world stage. Their film and television products are popular across Africa and flourish on streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime. Lagos and Johannesburg are two of Africa’s most prominent sociocultural capitals. You would be hard pressed to find any major city on the continent — and increasingly across the globe — where “Afrobeats” and amapiano are not a musical staple, and there is a strong case to be made that South Africa’s Tyla and Nigeria’s Ayra Starr are the continent’s two biggest female popular music acts at the moment.

Nigeria and South Africa must come together for their own sake — and Africa’s

It is time, however, to raise the stakes in the competitive rivalry between the two nations and it must begin on the home front. Nigeria and South Africa face intractable economic, political and social problems that have few quick fixes or immediate answers. The ruling elites who have held power in the intervening years have failed to democratize prosperity in sustainable ways. Depression-level unemployment rates, falling incomes and violent crime are just three indicators of the state failure on display in the two countries. The two countries have several advantages like a favorable geography, natural-resource endowments, strong links with the English-speaking world and a relatively developed financial sector that could help kickstart an economic renaissance. As the nerve centers of their respective regions, Nigeria and South Africa attract entrepreneurs, traders and workers from neighboring countries and beyond.

The two countries have come a long way from the sordid legacy of colonialism, apartheid and military dictatorship. As Africa’s two geopolitical heavyweights, it is impossible to imagine any transformation on the continent that will not involve the two countries in some way. As South Africans gear up to go to the polls, time will tell whether the 2024 election marks the beginning of a new dawn. As for Nigeria, the triumph of 25 years of uninterrupted civilian rule has been tempered by a regression of living conditions not seen since the dark days of army rule. It is in their mutual interest as well as that of the wider continent for the two nations to have a more robust partnership. Nigerians and South Africans might not believe that they have much in common, but if they looked a little closer they might find themselves locked in similar conditions. In the decades to come, May 29 could turn out to be a date that binds the two countries together.

For now, I’ll leave you with one of my favorite “Afropiano” musical collaborations. Enjoy!